The ability to face the future is in part dependent on the methods that enable organisations to cope with risks.
Preparing for the future without being able to predict it. If we think about it, a large proportion of business activities can be summed up in this manner. Production planning, market analysis, hypotheses on changing patterns of behaviours and actions by competitors and many other elements besides – all designed to enable companies to deal with whatever the future holds for them. And while we cannot really predict the future in any real way, we can still prepare for what might reasonably happen. But also for elements of surprise. In other words, risk must be included in any prudent business planning. Reading “La nuova scienza del rischio. L’arte dell’immaginazione della difesa e della protezione” (The new science of risk: the art of the imagination of defence and protection) by Federica Spampinato could thus prove a useful exercise for many.
The reader is led through an exploration of a topic that has perhaps been given little airtime in business management techniques to date; a topic that entails more than just the “old-style” calculation of probabilities. The new science of risk, as explained by Spampinato, offers a different, more concrete take on risk, which makes it possible to imagine and prevent the dangers that lie around the corner. The fundamental assumption is that while “zero risk” cannot exist, “zero consequence” can.
After clarifying the concepts of “future” and “risk”, the author presents the reader with a number of new theories on how the risks to which organisations may be exposed can be addressed. Specifically, Spampinato begins by looking at Cindynics, the science of risk, a French discipline that appeared at the end of the 1980s, before moving on to KELONY®: a post-probabilistic mathematical model that places human beings back at the heart of the decision-making process, so that we can act in the best possible manner even in the worst possible conditions, using our imagination as well as new methods of ensuring that activities and production areas are safe.
For Spampinato, the overall goal is to build a society that is more aware, with the ability to consider the protection of human beings beyond profit, both within the civil environment and within companies and organisations.
Whilst readers may not agree with everything Spampinato says, “La nuova scienza del rischio” is nonetheless a worthwhile read.
La nuova scienza del rischio. L’arte dell’immaginazione della difesa e della protezione (The new science of risk: the art of the imagination of defence and protection)
Guerini e Associati, 2020