Access the Online Archive
Search the Historical Archive of the Pirelli Foundation for sources and materials. Select the type of support you are interested in and write the keywords of your research.
  • Documents
  • Photographs
  • Drawings and posters
  • Audio-visuals
  • Publications and magazines
  • All
Help with your research
To request to view the materials in the Historical Archive and in the libraries of the Pirelli Foundation for study and research purposes and/or to find out how to request the use of materials for loans and exhibitions, please fill in the form below. You will receive an email confirming receipt of the request and you will be contacted.

I declare that I have read and understood the privacy statement concerning the processing of my personal data[DTJI1] ,  and, pursuant to Art. 6 of the GDPR, I authorise the Pirelli Foundation to process my personal data for the purposes described therein. .

Fields marked with * are mandatory
Pirelli Foundation Educational Courses

Select the education level of the school
  • Primary schools

  • Lower secondary school

  • Upper secondary school

  • University

Back
Primary schools
Pirelli Foundation Educational Courses
Please fill in your details and the staff of Pirelli Foundation Educational will contact you to arrange the dates of the course.

I declare that I have read and understood the privacy statement concerning the processing of my personal data[DTJI1] ,  and, pursuant to Art. 6 of the GDPR, I authorise the Pirelli Foundation to process my personal data for the purposes described therein. .

Fields marked with * are mandatory
Back
Lower secondary school
Pirelli Foundation Educational Courses
Please fill in your details and the staff of Pirelli Foundation Educational will contact you to arrange the dates of the course.

I declare that I have read and understood the privacy statement concerning the processing of my personal data[DTJI1] ,  and, pursuant to Art. 6 of the GDPR, I authorise the Pirelli Foundation to process my personal data for the purposes described therein. .

Fields marked with * are mandatory
Back
Upper secondary school
Pirelli Foundation Educational Courses
Please fill in your details and the staff of Pirelli Foundation Educational will contact you to arrange the dates of the course.

I declare that I have read and understood the privacy statement concerning the processing of my personal data[DTJI1] ,  and, pursuant to Art. 6 of the GDPR, I authorise the Pirelli Foundation to process my personal data for the purposes described therein. .

Fields marked with * are mandatory
Back
University
Pirelli Foundation Educational Courses

Do you want to organize a training programme with your students? For information and reservations, write to universita@fondazionepirelli.org

Visit the Foundation
For information on the Foundation's activities and admission to the spaces,
please call +39 0264423971 or write to visite@fondazionepirelli.org

I declare that I have read and understood the privacy statement concerning the processing of my personal data[DTJI1] ,  and, pursuant to Art. 6 of the GDPR, I authorise the Pirelli Foundation to process my personal data for the purposes described therein. .

Fields marked with * are mandatory

Risky predictions

Two researchers from the Banca d’Italia discuss the difficulties of analysing the present and the future in light of the economic situation we are currently experiencing

Predicting, or rather, speculating about a future that will never be as it we once thought it would. In any case, attempting to “be ready” for events in both the near and distant future that will affect social communities, businesses, production organisations and individuals. Forecasting has always been a fascinating (and dangerous) exercise. And now, this exercise has taken on even more complex undertones and connotations. Yet in one way or another, it still needs to be addressed. This is something that also applies to entrepreneurs and managers, and which must be approached with a profound awareness of the difficulties that lie ahead for us. Within this context, reading “Previsioni ai tempi del Coronavirus” (“Forecasting in the era of the Coronavirus”), written by Alberto Locarno and Roberta Zizza (of Banca d’Italia) certainly represents a good step forward in gaining a better understanding of the reality of the situation.

The two researchers begin their argument with the observation that “due to the virulence of its impact on society and the economy, the Covid-19 pandemic also represents a challenge for those responsible for forecasting”. Indeed, the challenge is so great that the expression “this time is different”, which was “last in vogue during the Global Financial Crisis, although appropriate, is nonetheless not sufficient to describe the gravity and the exceptional nature of the current emergency”.

The problem highlighted by the two authors is simple: the difficulty is derived from the lack of information on the true evolution of the contagion, a scarcity that in turn is due to the dearth of reliable statistical information and the presence “of new routes of transmission, through which the health crisis is affecting the economy”. In short, those who make predictions for a living now find themselves floored; they lack the basic elements they need to be able to carry out a proper analysis, which is the basis for providing a reasonably reliable forecast of what is likely to happen in the future. This is something that applies to everyone, and as such, to all companies that are facing suspended investments, balance sheets with unexpected costs, new organisational issues and more.

Locarno and Zizza’s essay, however, strives to strike a balance between the uncertainty that economic and social systems are currently experiencing and the need to give shape to analyses that are sufficiently trustworthy. Having taken an in-depth look at the factors that make forecasting more difficult, the authors move on, examining the potential developments that could occur through the use of the short and medium-term forecasting methods developed by the Banca d’Italia. As such, they outline a potential future for forecasting, where indications with a good degree of certainty are accompanied by hypotheses that will need to be verified over time.

The text by Locarno and Zizza is worth a read, not so much for the indications it provides with regard to what may happen in the future, but rather in order to gain a better understanding of the challenging situation we must wrestle with when formulating or using these forecasts.

Previsioni ai tempi del Coronavirus (“Forecasting in the era of the Coronavirus”)

Alberto Locarno, Roberta Zizza

Banca d’Italia, Covid-19 Notes, 11 May 2020