Skilled labour, higher wages and innovation: the solutions to prevent our young people from taking flight
Italy is ageing. We are having fewer and fewer children. And year by year, increasingly more of our young are leaving, especially those with high qualifications and a drive to succeed. This impoverishes the country: fewer young people means less work, fewer companies, less gross domestic product and lower productivity, as well as less passion for innovation, less social cohesion and a more fragile civic spirit linked to community values. Does this mean Italy is in decline? Not yet. But the risks are high.
These are the considerations that spring to mind when reading recent economic and demographic data which confirms long-known trends that, at times, are becoming increasingly alarming. Unfortunately, despite the progress that has been made, this issue still does not form a central part of public and political discourse, except in terms of rhetoric about caring for future generations.
What does the data say? ISTAT has confirmed that a quarter of the Italian population (58,934,000 as of 1 January 2025) is over 65 years old, with 4,591,000 people being over 80 years old (an increase of 50,000 since 2024). Life expectancy at birth is now 81.4 years for men and 85.5 years for women, which is almost five months longer than in 2023. Births continue to decline, with only 370,000 new births in 2024 and the fertility rate falling to 1.18 children per woman — one of the lowest rates in Europe.
Another very concerning statistic is that 97,000 young graduates have left the country in search of better job and life opportunities in the last ten years. And this average figure tends to worsen over time. In 2023 alone, there were 21,000 (21% more than the previous year). Almost one hundred thousand graduates have disappeared from our labour market. They were educated in our schools and gained sophisticated, in-depth knowledge at our universities, several of which are now among the best in the world. The Milan Polytechnic has just entered the top 100. Now, these talented young people are working for other countries, production systems and societies. This is a waste, which is even more serious at a time when the main competitive advantage is precisely the ‘knowledge economy’. Italy is not meeting the need for skilled labour in companies, public administration or services (health, for example) with only 20.7 per cent of graduates compared to an EU average of 32 per cent.
ISTAT also documents that, in the two-year period 2023–2024, the number of Italian citizens who emigrated (270,000) increased by 39.3% (this refers to the number of people who change their registered address, which is much lower than the number of people who leave the country while remaining formally registered with their local registry office). These can be temporary or long-term choices, however few return. Between 2019 and 2023, 192,000 Italians aged 25–34 expatriated, and 73,000 returned. Almost 120,000 remained abroad.
Where? Firstly, the UK, followed by Germany, Switzerland, France and Spain (ISTAT data). ‘We have not invested in their training, active policies, research or developing human capital within companies. We are not enabling young people to feel like an active part of a society that grows and improves with them. Other countries, on the other hand, are more attractive,’ summarises Alessandro Rosina, Professor of Demography and Statistics at the Catholic University of Milan (La Stampa, 18 June).
To better understand why so many young people leave, one need only look at the salaries on offer. The latest report by Almalaurea, the consortium uniting 82 Italian universities, documents the fact that the average salary in Italy is very low. According to Il Sole24Ore (17 June), graduates earn 54 per cent more abroad than in Italy one year after graduation, and 62 per cent more five years after graduation.
Yet despite being poorly paid, our graduates excel, including in the world of research. This is confirmed by the latest figures on ERC Advanced Grants, European funding for senior researchers: Italy is third in Europe after the UK and Germany, having just overtaken France and the Netherlands. And if you look at the researchers’ passports, Italy comes second behind Germany. The problem for Italy is that many of the Italians awarded ERC funding work abroad permanently. This year, out of 37 awardees, 23 work in Italy and 14 abroad (Corriere della Sera, 18 June). In 2023, the situation was even worse: 22 awardees worked abroad and only 12 in Italy. Interestingly, there is a trend towards improving the quality and opportunities offered by Italian centres, but only time will tell how far this trend can be consolidated.
The key point here is that, in order to keep our graduates in Italy and attract international talent, we need to invest much more in research (well over the current 1.4 per cent of GDP — a very low figure compared to the EU average of over 2 per cent) and in quality training, as well as in salaries and career opportunities to build better conditions for professional and personal development and fulfilment.
The choices to be made call into question public expenditure, including that of the NRP. According to the principles of Next Generation EU, the NRP should have prioritised the various opportunities of the ‘knowledge economy’ to stimulate and support environmental and digital transitions. However, current expenditure only partially aligns with these original objectives. These changes must also affect businesses: entry salaries are low, particularly in small and medium-sized companies which are still strongly family-dominated in management. The opportunities for young graduates in these companies are still very limited. ‘Does the country think about young people?’ asks the economist Francesco Giavazzi pointedly (Corriere della Sera, 19 June), drawing on his experience working in the government at Palazzo Chigi during Mario Draghi’s time as president of the council. Italy is becoming a country where the elderly prevail and leave less and less space, including social and cultural space, for the new generations, who emigrate. This burdens the climate and habits of the ‘country for old men’, with its fears and suspicion of change, creating a vicious circle.
More and better targeted public and private investment is therefore needed to drive innovation. Choices must be made that reward knowledge, skills, enterprise, and international culture. This is the opposite of the tendencies towards conservation and resistance to modernisation. The spread of ‘poor work’ is typical of a widespread political tendency to neglect industry, high-tech services and industrial policy that stimulates the most productive and innovative sectors. In short, Patrizio Bianchi, an economist, former university rector in Ferrara and former councillor for labour in the Emilia Region, argues that ‘a European policy is needed for universities, jobs and salaries.’ As Rosina says, ‘Guaranteeing our young people conditions equal to those they find in other European countries is a crucial challenge for Italy’s growth and development.’ A challenge for good politics indeed, and a truly open view of the future.
Italy is ageing. We are having fewer and fewer children. And year by year, increasingly more of our young are leaving, especially those with high qualifications and a drive to succeed. This impoverishes the country: fewer young people means less work, fewer companies, less gross domestic product and lower productivity, as well as less passion for innovation, less social cohesion and a more fragile civic spirit linked to community values. Does this mean Italy is in decline? Not yet. But the risks are high.
These are the considerations that spring to mind when reading recent economic and demographic data which confirms long-known trends that, at times, are becoming increasingly alarming. Unfortunately, despite the progress that has been made, this issue still does not form a central part of public and political discourse, except in terms of rhetoric about caring for future generations.
What does the data say? ISTAT has confirmed that a quarter of the Italian population (58,934,000 as of 1 January 2025) is over 65 years old, with 4,591,000 people being over 80 years old (an increase of 50,000 since 2024). Life expectancy at birth is now 81.4 years for men and 85.5 years for women, which is almost five months longer than in 2023. Births continue to decline, with only 370,000 new births in 2024 and the fertility rate falling to 1.18 children per woman — one of the lowest rates in Europe.
Another very concerning statistic is that 97,000 young graduates have left the country in search of better job and life opportunities in the last ten years. And this average figure tends to worsen over time. In 2023 alone, there were 21,000 (21% more than the previous year). Almost one hundred thousand graduates have disappeared from our labour market. They were educated in our schools and gained sophisticated, in-depth knowledge at our universities, several of which are now among the best in the world. The Milan Polytechnic has just entered the top 100. Now, these talented young people are working for other countries, production systems and societies. This is a waste, which is even more serious at a time when the main competitive advantage is precisely the ‘knowledge economy’. Italy is not meeting the need for skilled labour in companies, public administration or services (health, for example) with only 20.7 per cent of graduates compared to an EU average of 32 per cent.
ISTAT also documents that, in the two-year period 2023–2024, the number of Italian citizens who emigrated (270,000) increased by 39.3% (this refers to the number of people who change their registered address, which is much lower than the number of people who leave the country while remaining formally registered with their local registry office). These can be temporary or long-term choices, however few return. Between 2019 and 2023, 192,000 Italians aged 25–34 expatriated, and 73,000 returned. Almost 120,000 remained abroad.
Where? Firstly, the UK, followed by Germany, Switzerland, France and Spain (ISTAT data). ‘We have not invested in their training, active policies, research or developing human capital within companies. We are not enabling young people to feel like an active part of a society that grows and improves with them. Other countries, on the other hand, are more attractive,’ summarises Alessandro Rosina, Professor of Demography and Statistics at the Catholic University of Milan (La Stampa, 18 June).
To better understand why so many young people leave, one need only look at the salaries on offer. The latest report by Almalaurea, the consortium uniting 82 Italian universities, documents the fact that the average salary in Italy is very low. According to Il Sole24Ore (17 June), graduates earn 54 per cent more abroad than in Italy one year after graduation, and 62 per cent more five years after graduation.
Yet despite being poorly paid, our graduates excel, including in the world of research. This is confirmed by the latest figures on ERC Advanced Grants, European funding for senior researchers: Italy is third in Europe after the UK and Germany, having just overtaken France and the Netherlands. And if you look at the researchers’ passports, Italy comes second behind Germany. The problem for Italy is that many of the Italians awarded ERC funding work abroad permanently. This year, out of 37 awardees, 23 work in Italy and 14 abroad (Corriere della Sera, 18 June). In 2023, the situation was even worse: 22 awardees worked abroad and only 12 in Italy. Interestingly, there is a trend towards improving the quality and opportunities offered by Italian centres, but only time will tell how far this trend can be consolidated.
The key point here is that, in order to keep our graduates in Italy and attract international talent, we need to invest much more in research (well over the current 1.4 per cent of GDP — a very low figure compared to the EU average of over 2 per cent) and in quality training, as well as in salaries and career opportunities to build better conditions for professional and personal development and fulfilment.
The choices to be made call into question public expenditure, including that of the NRP. According to the principles of Next Generation EU, the NRP should have prioritised the various opportunities of the ‘knowledge economy’ to stimulate and support environmental and digital transitions. However, current expenditure only partially aligns with these original objectives. These changes must also affect businesses: entry salaries are low, particularly in small and medium-sized companies which are still strongly family-dominated in management. The opportunities for young graduates in these companies are still very limited. ‘Does the country think about young people?’ asks the economist Francesco Giavazzi pointedly (Corriere della Sera, 19 June), drawing on his experience working in the government at Palazzo Chigi during Mario Draghi’s time as president of the council. Italy is becoming a country where the elderly prevail and leave less and less space, including social and cultural space, for the new generations, who emigrate. This burdens the climate and habits of the ‘country for old men’, with its fears and suspicion of change, creating a vicious circle.
More and better targeted public and private investment is therefore needed to drive innovation. Choices must be made that reward knowledge, skills, enterprise, and international culture. This is the opposite of the tendencies towards conservation and resistance to modernisation. The spread of ‘poor work’ is typical of a widespread political tendency to neglect industry, high-tech services and industrial policy that stimulates the most productive and innovative sectors. In short, Patrizio Bianchi, an economist, former university rector in Ferrara and former councillor for labour in the Emilia Region, argues that ‘a European policy is needed for universities, jobs and salaries.’ As Rosina says, ‘Guaranteeing our young people conditions equal to those they find in other European countries is a crucial challenge for Italy’s growth and development.’ A challenge for good politics indeed, and a truly open view of the future.