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The recovery is in the hands of medium companies – competitive industrial policies are a must

It’s always worth reading the papers, in print and online, with attention and perseverance, devoting some time to facts and data, reports and comments that are well-documented and competent, in order to build an earnest and reliable image of the real economic and social conditions of Italy, and thus become part of a public opinion able to apply well-informed critical thinking – the essence of democracy.

How is Italy doing, then, in those first weeks of 2023? “A turning point is in sight, companies are starting up again” writes IlSole24Ore (22 January), explaining that “the drop in gas prices has spurred factories back into gear” and that “the economy is better than expected”, though it’s still too “early to celebrate”, as “inflation is still high and the increase in rates is stifling investments”, while “employment is fine” with 280,000 new jobs filled since January 2022 (according to data by the Centro Studi Confindustria). A growth of 0.6% is foreseen for 2023 – it might not sound like much, but it’s still a growth.

2022, asserts the Bank of Italy, went better than expected, with a GDP growth of almost 4%, which brings the country’s cumulative growth – between 2021 and 2022 – to almost 11%, a phenomenon unseen since the economic boom of the 1950s and 1960s, and one of the highest in the G7 group after the pandemic crisis. Stock market trends confirm this: still in 2022, corporate earnings of companies listed in Piazza Affari, have risen by 37%, and thus, “the recession is far from reaching the stock market, too”, comments IlSole24Ore (22 January).

After so much talk about a forthcoming recession, with widespread concerns about a European and global economic crash (energy costs, inflation, war in Ukraine, the slowing down of international trade), both the major global economic players who met in Davos last week and Monetary Fund’s executives have adopted more reassuring tones, though still pointing out some precarious and worrying circumstances (such as China’s troubling trend in terms of demographic decline and its scarce economic growth), as well as fears that geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West might escalate. No catastrophes, however, and perhaps no recession even, just a mere “slow down”, especially in Europe.

We’ll see what happens, well aware, in any case, of the impact that mental attitudes and “expectations” can have on the actual economic development. Indeed, insisting that a crisis is coming just paves its way for it, turning it into a self-fulfilling prophecy, while continued emphasis on “confidence” will strengthen a positive – albeit wary – attitude towards the recovery, driving consumption and investments.

As regards to this, newspaper Il Foglio is actually running a keen campaign, taking into account insights from reputable international news outlets and talking about an “anti-catastrophist agenda” (21 January). It’s also exerting pressure on prime minister Giorgia Meloni to renege on her beloved electoral campaign’s promises and, instead, keep tight bonds with Europe and make productive and competitive – as opposed to statist and protectionist – choices that will place Italian enterprise in a position to grow, innovate and work better. Starting with large state corporations (such as Eni, Enel, Leonardo, Poste Italiane, the Italian railways, Fincantieri, etc.), the main cornerstones in extensive production chains of international importance: these need to be well governed, through competitive and efficient decisions rather than shared out amongst the powerful, which would only undermine their competitiveness.

Here’s the deal: dynamic enterprises. Manufacturing enterprises in particular have been driving this extraordinary economic recovery, attested by that +11% GDP increase we mention above. Their success, over such a long period of time that started with the Great Crisis of 2008 to the inception of the pandemic, is the result of innovation, investments, export, the establishment of factories and acquisitions abroad, as well as of the ability to take advantage of the fiscal stimulus introduced by forward-looking governments to ease the digital transformation of Industry 4.0 (and hindered by incompetent governments – especially the “yellow-green” populist one led by Giuseppe Conte).

Manufacturing companies, in other words, have relaunched productivity and competitiveness, and succeeded in harnessing a key feature of Italian industry: the attitude of “producing beautiful things that the world likes”. Quality, design, “tailored” products (from clothing to the boating industry, from robotics to the building of production plants and machine tools, from chemistry to pharmaceuticals), a close relationship between high-tech and beauty, an original bond between unique historical roots and a sense for the future, a sophisticated ability to adapt and good taste in global niches featuring the greatest added value.

This is confirmed by the Mediobanca Report on “mid-cap” companies, companies with medium market capitalisation – the so-called “fourth capitalism” – whose “performance in 2022 has been 20% higher than that of equivalent French and German companies” and which are expected, for 2023, to show “a 3% aggregated growth in profits as compared to the -9% expected of large companies”. Hence, “Italian medium companies top EU ranks in terms of productivity” is the headline of IlSole24Ore (19 January), and “Resilient medium companies will drive the growth”, confirms Corriere della Sera.

Just now, these medium companies are dealing with the complex digital and environmental twin transition and as such they need national and European industrial policies (in terms of security, energy, raw material, high-tech components production, as discussed in last week’s blog) that can consolidate their competitiveness, also with regard to other European enterprises. In such selective markets, they need to be able to keep on investing in innovation and social and environmental sustainability, keep hold of the best production chains (thus, the role of large companies as prime contractors is back on the scene), and continue to grow on European and global markets.

In such a difficult period of crises and opportunities, and avoiding the lures of an easy optimism, the Italian industry shows excellent prospects in terms of development – and the responsibility of not wasting this opportunity lies in the hands of political powers and social actors.

(Photo: Getty images)

It’s always worth reading the papers, in print and online, with attention and perseverance, devoting some time to facts and data, reports and comments that are well-documented and competent, in order to build an earnest and reliable image of the real economic and social conditions of Italy, and thus become part of a public opinion able to apply well-informed critical thinking – the essence of democracy.

How is Italy doing, then, in those first weeks of 2023? “A turning point is in sight, companies are starting up again” writes IlSole24Ore (22 January), explaining that “the drop in gas prices has spurred factories back into gear” and that “the economy is better than expected”, though it’s still too “early to celebrate”, as “inflation is still high and the increase in rates is stifling investments”, while “employment is fine” with 280,000 new jobs filled since January 2022 (according to data by the Centro Studi Confindustria). A growth of 0.6% is foreseen for 2023 – it might not sound like much, but it’s still a growth.

2022, asserts the Bank of Italy, went better than expected, with a GDP growth of almost 4%, which brings the country’s cumulative growth – between 2021 and 2022 – to almost 11%, a phenomenon unseen since the economic boom of the 1950s and 1960s, and one of the highest in the G7 group after the pandemic crisis. Stock market trends confirm this: still in 2022, corporate earnings of companies listed in Piazza Affari, have risen by 37%, and thus, “the recession is far from reaching the stock market, too”, comments IlSole24Ore (22 January).

After so much talk about a forthcoming recession, with widespread concerns about a European and global economic crash (energy costs, inflation, war in Ukraine, the slowing down of international trade), both the major global economic players who met in Davos last week and Monetary Fund’s executives have adopted more reassuring tones, though still pointing out some precarious and worrying circumstances (such as China’s troubling trend in terms of demographic decline and its scarce economic growth), as well as fears that geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West might escalate. No catastrophes, however, and perhaps no recession even, just a mere “slow down”, especially in Europe.

We’ll see what happens, well aware, in any case, of the impact that mental attitudes and “expectations” can have on the actual economic development. Indeed, insisting that a crisis is coming just paves its way for it, turning it into a self-fulfilling prophecy, while continued emphasis on “confidence” will strengthen a positive – albeit wary – attitude towards the recovery, driving consumption and investments.

As regards to this, newspaper Il Foglio is actually running a keen campaign, taking into account insights from reputable international news outlets and talking about an “anti-catastrophist agenda” (21 January). It’s also exerting pressure on prime minister Giorgia Meloni to renege on her beloved electoral campaign’s promises and, instead, keep tight bonds with Europe and make productive and competitive – as opposed to statist and protectionist – choices that will place Italian enterprise in a position to grow, innovate and work better. Starting with large state corporations (such as Eni, Enel, Leonardo, Poste Italiane, the Italian railways, Fincantieri, etc.), the main cornerstones in extensive production chains of international importance: these need to be well governed, through competitive and efficient decisions rather than shared out amongst the powerful, which would only undermine their competitiveness.

Here’s the deal: dynamic enterprises. Manufacturing enterprises in particular have been driving this extraordinary economic recovery, attested by that +11% GDP increase we mention above. Their success, over such a long period of time that started with the Great Crisis of 2008 to the inception of the pandemic, is the result of innovation, investments, export, the establishment of factories and acquisitions abroad, as well as of the ability to take advantage of the fiscal stimulus introduced by forward-looking governments to ease the digital transformation of Industry 4.0 (and hindered by incompetent governments – especially the “yellow-green” populist one led by Giuseppe Conte).

Manufacturing companies, in other words, have relaunched productivity and competitiveness, and succeeded in harnessing a key feature of Italian industry: the attitude of “producing beautiful things that the world likes”. Quality, design, “tailored” products (from clothing to the boating industry, from robotics to the building of production plants and machine tools, from chemistry to pharmaceuticals), a close relationship between high-tech and beauty, an original bond between unique historical roots and a sense for the future, a sophisticated ability to adapt and good taste in global niches featuring the greatest added value.

This is confirmed by the Mediobanca Report on “mid-cap” companies, companies with medium market capitalisation – the so-called “fourth capitalism” – whose “performance in 2022 has been 20% higher than that of equivalent French and German companies” and which are expected, for 2023, to show “a 3% aggregated growth in profits as compared to the -9% expected of large companies”. Hence, “Italian medium companies top EU ranks in terms of productivity” is the headline of IlSole24Ore (19 January), and “Resilient medium companies will drive the growth”, confirms Corriere della Sera.

Just now, these medium companies are dealing with the complex digital and environmental twin transition and as such they need national and European industrial policies (in terms of security, energy, raw material, high-tech components production, as discussed in last week’s blog) that can consolidate their competitiveness, also with regard to other European enterprises. In such selective markets, they need to be able to keep on investing in innovation and social and environmental sustainability, keep hold of the best production chains (thus, the role of large companies as prime contractors is back on the scene), and continue to grow on European and global markets.

In such a difficult period of crises and opportunities, and avoiding the lures of an easy optimism, the Italian industry shows excellent prospects in terms of development – and the responsibility of not wasting this opportunity lies in the hands of political powers and social actors.

(Photo: Getty images)