A study published by the Bank of Italy helps to explain what has happened in recent months

 

Understanding the context in which we operate, and consequently acting with prudence and responsibility, is a fundamental duty for everyone, but especially for those tasked with leading a company. Knowledge and understanding are therefore essential elements of a well-rounded corporate culture, which must be cultivated using the right tools. This is the purpose of the recently published study, ‘I mercati dell’energia sotto pressione: lo shock di Hormuz del 2026’ (Energy markets under pressure: the 2026 Hormuz shock), edited by Alessandro D’Orazio, Simone Emiliozzi, Fabrizio Ferriani, Andrea Gazzani, Marco Taboga and Giovanni Veronese, and available in the Bank of Italy’s Questioni di Economia e Finanza.

This study analyses the potential impact of a conflict in the Middle East in 2026 and associated shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz on global energy markets. The analysis, which covers developments up to mid-2026, examines the impact on the supply and prices of crude oil, refined products, and liquefied natural gas. It also looks at the mechanisms for absorbing the shock, as well as the main policy responses. This includes a comparison with the 2021–2022 energy crisis.

The study explains how the conflict caused the most severe physical disruption to supply in the history of global energy markets, although energy prices have risen sharply to a lesser extent than the scale of the physical disruption would suggest. This was made possible by high stock levels prior to the conflict, the release of emergency reserves, the re-routing of raw material flows, and a fall in demand. Nevertheless, the shock took on a global scale and differed from previous energy shocks in several respects, including its unprecedented scale, its spread to refined product markets, the asymmetry in exposure between Asian and European importers, and its uncertain duration.

The research by Alessandro D’Orazio and his colleagues has one major strength: it covers a complex subject in a limited amount of space while providing a wealth of data and analysis. It is precisely the tool we need to understand what has happened and is happening.

I mercati dell’energia sotto pressione: lo shock di Hormuz del 2026

Alessandro D’Orazio, Simone Emiliozzi, Fabrizio Ferriani, Andrea Gazzani, Marco Taboga, Giovanni Veronese

Bank of Italy, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers), No. 1067, October 2026