Italy’s young people intending to move abroad are symbolic of a country in decline, hit by a crisis of confidence and of the future
We are in the midst of the demographic winter, with fewer than 400,000 children born in 2023 and an increasingly aging population. Tens of thousands of youngsters are fleeing abroad, in search of better working and living conditions: 525,000 of them from 2008 to 2022, to be precise, according to data provided by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, in his annual Report in May. Italy is struggling to view the future in positive terms. And while negative demographic data are nothing new, despite political decision makers and governments talking a great deal about young people, promising measures for them and boasting about their choices, they still seem unable to launch convincing measures capable of reversing the dramatic decline. And this, in turn, affects the population and GDP, productivity and the prospective competitiveness and sustainable development of the country’s economy.
The latest alarm was sounded by a study conducted by Ipsos for the Barletta Foundation, which will be presented on Wednesday and was previewed in Il Sole 24 ore on 7 July. It found that 35% of young Italians under 30 are ready to move abroad for “higher wages” and “better job opportunities”. This is a dramatic figure: one in three of our children and grandchildren wants to leave, one in three are “voting with their feet” (choosing, that is, to leave Italy, demonstrating a real crisis of confidence in the country), rejecting, therefore, labour policies, career prospects, and what the public sector and businesses can offer them. In summary, then, one in three of those with an Italian degree wants to go abroad to be an engineer, a doctor, a scientific researcher or a university professor, a computer technician or chemist and so on – across all professions and trades, especially those in high-tech fields, which guarantee a more rewarding future.
On average, young people’s inclination to move abroad concerns all Italian regions and cities. But in the South the phenomenon is much worse. Because when you read the results of the Ipsos survey, it turns out that in addition to the 35% ready to leave the country, only 15% say they do not want to move at all. Another 18% say they would go “anywhere in Italy” and 32% are willing to move “only within my region or to neighbouring regions”. In total, that means 85% of young people have made the decision to leave home. This represents a gigantic social and economic upheaval, a radical change in the family and urban fabric. Cristina Casadei and Claudio Tucci comment in Il Sole 24 ore that: “While Northern Italy more or less manages to compensate for young people leaving by attracting their counterparts from the South, the South itself has no means of replacing youthful talent. This double whammy puts the resilience of the entire country to the test, especially when the exodus concerns professions with high added value.”
Milan, a large university city (with more than 200,000 students across more than ten universities that are world class in terms of education and research quality) continues to be an attractive destination – even for young people from abroad. But the rest of Italy is struggling.
A low number of graduates (only 22% of the population hold a higher education degree, fewer than other EU countries) drives the entire country’s productivity down and weakens the impulse for innovation, change, entrepreneurship and the construction of new and better opportunities not only for economic growth, but for improving the quality of life overall. At a time when the “knowledge economy” dominates, the shortage of graduates, not only in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) but more generally, makes it a real challenge for Italy and its companies to withstand competition in increasingly demanding and discerning markets. And while highlighting and supporting quality Italian manufacturing is a very useful policy, above all we need to invest in long-term training, tax support for investors and innovators and European-scale industrial policies. Everything, in short, that is also needed to grant young people future prospects – the elements for rebuilding trust to bring back those who left and keep those who still want to continue living in Italy. Elements that will also attract young people from other areas of the Mediterranean, from Europe and from the world.
We need young people’s intelligence, up-to-date knowledge and skills, and visions that are open to change. Without their talents, Italy’s economy will increasingly struggle. One statistic puts the phenomenon into perspective: companies say they are ready to hire 800,000 people, but they can only find fewer than half.
Without the appropriate strategic choices, in the future things will get even worse. This is confirmed by forecasts reiterated for some time by someone who pays close attention to the relationship between culture, training and competitiveness – Francesco Promico, a man of science and government (formerly Minister of Education and president of the CNR and Compagnia di San Paolo). In 2023, there were 180,000 graduates, compared to 800,000 children born at the beginning of the 2000s. Going by the same percentages, in 20 years’ time, the 379,000 children born in 2023 will result in 80 or 90,000 graduates. That’s a derisory figure.
And therein lies the key point of the declining birth rate. Over 20 years, we have lost three million young people between the ages of 18 and 34. And in thirty years, according to calculations by Gian Carlo Blangiardo, a professor of demography and former president of statistics agency ISTAT, the working-age population (in the 15-64 age group) will go from the current figure of 37.5 million to 27.2 million: that’s ten million fewer people, a decrease of 27.3%. An economic disaster. And in social terms, an aging Italy loses resources, stimuli and prospects.
So, what is to be done? We need to think of policies to combat the falling birth rate, making the unavoidable choices now to stem a long-term phenomenon. We need to prepare and manage immigration policies, with everything that implies in terms of integration and training, employment and citizenship. But we also need to improve the quality of schooling – from primary classes onwards – right away and increase the number of youngsters who go through university from the current 22% to at least 30%, seeking to rapidly align ourselves with the rest of Europe. And, naturally, in terms of innovation, we need to make our companies more attractive, starting with manufacturers – the backbone of Italian-made excellence. This applies not only to salaries, but to the quality of work, career and life prospects, the environment, relationships and personal, professional and cultural opportunities. In short, this is a challenge related to quality and the future.
(photo Getty Images)
We are in the midst of the demographic winter, with fewer than 400,000 children born in 2023 and an increasingly aging population. Tens of thousands of youngsters are fleeing abroad, in search of better working and living conditions: 525,000 of them from 2008 to 2022, to be precise, according to data provided by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, in his annual Report in May. Italy is struggling to view the future in positive terms. And while negative demographic data are nothing new, despite political decision makers and governments talking a great deal about young people, promising measures for them and boasting about their choices, they still seem unable to launch convincing measures capable of reversing the dramatic decline. And this, in turn, affects the population and GDP, productivity and the prospective competitiveness and sustainable development of the country’s economy.
The latest alarm was sounded by a study conducted by Ipsos for the Barletta Foundation, which will be presented on Wednesday and was previewed in Il Sole 24 ore on 7 July. It found that 35% of young Italians under 30 are ready to move abroad for “higher wages” and “better job opportunities”. This is a dramatic figure: one in three of our children and grandchildren wants to leave, one in three are “voting with their feet” (choosing, that is, to leave Italy, demonstrating a real crisis of confidence in the country), rejecting, therefore, labour policies, career prospects, and what the public sector and businesses can offer them. In summary, then, one in three of those with an Italian degree wants to go abroad to be an engineer, a doctor, a scientific researcher or a university professor, a computer technician or chemist and so on – across all professions and trades, especially those in high-tech fields, which guarantee a more rewarding future.
On average, young people’s inclination to move abroad concerns all Italian regions and cities. But in the South the phenomenon is much worse. Because when you read the results of the Ipsos survey, it turns out that in addition to the 35% ready to leave the country, only 15% say they do not want to move at all. Another 18% say they would go “anywhere in Italy” and 32% are willing to move “only within my region or to neighbouring regions”. In total, that means 85% of young people have made the decision to leave home. This represents a gigantic social and economic upheaval, a radical change in the family and urban fabric. Cristina Casadei and Claudio Tucci comment in Il Sole 24 ore that: “While Northern Italy more or less manages to compensate for young people leaving by attracting their counterparts from the South, the South itself has no means of replacing youthful talent. This double whammy puts the resilience of the entire country to the test, especially when the exodus concerns professions with high added value.”
Milan, a large university city (with more than 200,000 students across more than ten universities that are world class in terms of education and research quality) continues to be an attractive destination – even for young people from abroad. But the rest of Italy is struggling.
A low number of graduates (only 22% of the population hold a higher education degree, fewer than other EU countries) drives the entire country’s productivity down and weakens the impulse for innovation, change, entrepreneurship and the construction of new and better opportunities not only for economic growth, but for improving the quality of life overall. At a time when the “knowledge economy” dominates, the shortage of graduates, not only in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) but more generally, makes it a real challenge for Italy and its companies to withstand competition in increasingly demanding and discerning markets. And while highlighting and supporting quality Italian manufacturing is a very useful policy, above all we need to invest in long-term training, tax support for investors and innovators and European-scale industrial policies. Everything, in short, that is also needed to grant young people future prospects – the elements for rebuilding trust to bring back those who left and keep those who still want to continue living in Italy. Elements that will also attract young people from other areas of the Mediterranean, from Europe and from the world.
We need young people’s intelligence, up-to-date knowledge and skills, and visions that are open to change. Without their talents, Italy’s economy will increasingly struggle. One statistic puts the phenomenon into perspective: companies say they are ready to hire 800,000 people, but they can only find fewer than half.
Without the appropriate strategic choices, in the future things will get even worse. This is confirmed by forecasts reiterated for some time by someone who pays close attention to the relationship between culture, training and competitiveness – Francesco Promico, a man of science and government (formerly Minister of Education and president of the CNR and Compagnia di San Paolo). In 2023, there were 180,000 graduates, compared to 800,000 children born at the beginning of the 2000s. Going by the same percentages, in 20 years’ time, the 379,000 children born in 2023 will result in 80 or 90,000 graduates. That’s a derisory figure.
And therein lies the key point of the declining birth rate. Over 20 years, we have lost three million young people between the ages of 18 and 34. And in thirty years, according to calculations by Gian Carlo Blangiardo, a professor of demography and former president of statistics agency ISTAT, the working-age population (in the 15-64 age group) will go from the current figure of 37.5 million to 27.2 million: that’s ten million fewer people, a decrease of 27.3%. An economic disaster. And in social terms, an aging Italy loses resources, stimuli and prospects.
So, what is to be done? We need to think of policies to combat the falling birth rate, making the unavoidable choices now to stem a long-term phenomenon. We need to prepare and manage immigration policies, with everything that implies in terms of integration and training, employment and citizenship. But we also need to improve the quality of schooling – from primary classes onwards – right away and increase the number of youngsters who go through university from the current 22% to at least 30%, seeking to rapidly align ourselves with the rest of Europe. And, naturally, in terms of innovation, we need to make our companies more attractive, starting with manufacturers – the backbone of Italian-made excellence. This applies not only to salaries, but to the quality of work, career and life prospects, the environment, relationships and personal, professional and cultural opportunities. In short, this is a challenge related to quality and the future.
(photo Getty Images)