Employment is on the rise but shadows still loom for young people and women. And the population rate is dropping…
Employment, immigration, training and education, development – let’s have look at and discuss the clear and accurate figures we have in our possession. In the last few days, ISTAT has announced a growth of up to 459,000 units in job numbers in January, as compared to last year, leading to a total of 23.3 million employed people: a record, at least since 2004, when monthly historical data series were introduced. The trend remains positive even when considered on a month-by-month basis: an increase of 35,000 employed people in January 2023, as compared to December 2022. “The job market continues to show positive signs, in line with a slowly recovering economic trend”, comments Il Sole24Ore (3 March). “The best job market in Italy of the past 30 years”, celebrates Il Foglio (3 March).
Indeed, a more in-depth review of the data reveals further positive elements: out of the 23.3 million employed people, 15.3 million are on a permanent contract, with a rise of 464,000 units as compared to January 2022 – an improvement with regards to job security, basically: while the number of fixed-term roles is currently under the psychological threshold of 3 million ( 2.994 million, to be precise).
The women’s employment rate is also positive: 9.87 million employed women, 264,000 more than in January 2022. Still, the employment gender gap remains wide – with an average increase of 60.8% overall, the men’s employment rate stands at 69.7% while the women’s employment rate is at an unsatisfactory 51.9%, and there are continued marked differences with other European countries (77% in Germany, 68% in France, 70% EU average). Yet, in spite of this, things are actually starting to shift, though more slowly then we’d like.
The economic recovery – particularly thriving in 2021 and 2022 (the GDP rose by almost 11% over this two-year period, at a pace unknown since the economic boom of the 1950s and 1960s) – is still flourishing at the beginning of 2023 and has quelled, for now, fears of a recession, as well as proving to have strong foundations both in terms of industrial manufacturing and export growth (a record figure of 625 billion). The impact of the Superbonus 110 construction scheme was trivial (the GDP grew by just 0.5% in 2021 and 0.9% in 2022, according to the analysis of the Italian public finances watchdog Osservatorio sui Conti Pubblici, undertaken by the Università Cattolica of Milan and led by Giampaolo Galli), thus invalidating the related propaganda spread by supporters of the Conte government and the Five Star Movement, who really wanted that bonus introduced despite all the issues its implementation would bring.
ISTAT employment data, however, also highlights an issue related to the younger generations that can’t be ignored: the employment rate, both for those under 25 and those aged 25 to 34 has dropped by 0.3%, while unemployment and inactivity have increased, and the unemployment rate has risen to 22.9% – one of the highest at international level, as having decreased to 5.7% in Germany, only Spain and Greece are now worse off than Italy.
Could things be better? Of course – if only enterprises could actually find the right people they’d like to employ then production, competitiveness, and social and economic growth would improve as a whole.
Indeed, the Unioncamere-ANPAL Excelsior surveys have always shown that almost half of vacant roles are not easy to fill, with peaks of 60-70% for technical and scientific ones. Economic news bear witness to this, too: “Companies are hunting for workers, but 41% is nowhere to be found” (Il Sole24Ore, 27 December 2022); “Manufacturers are looking for 43,000 workers in Milan, Monza and Brianza” (Corriere della Sera, 18 February); “Employment – companies are hunting for 4 million of young workers” (Il Sole24Ore, 11 February) – and so on, also in the fashion, mechatronics, chemistry and agri-food industries.
The Bank of Italy is also warning that in order to promptly and effectively implement the PNRR (the Italian recovery and resilience plan), 375,00 new workers are needed, from labourers to specialised technicians, as well as public administrators – it’s a real shame that they can’t be found (la Repubblica, 7 February).
Hence, we have a paradox: our productive drive is turning Italy into the second European manufacturing country, with increasing presence in high-value niches on the global markets, but we lack the necessary human capital to keep on growing, while hundreds of thousands of young people go abroad, looking for better work and life conditions (as we already mentioned several times in these blog posts).
In this respect, we can see that there are still various matters to be addressed concerning university education (with still too few students on STEM – science, technology, engineering and mathematics – degrees), proper social conditions for a radical increase of women workers, salaries and wages, quality work and satisfying prospects within a landscape filled with enterprises that are too small and often run in an old-fashioned way.
Obviously, the double issue pertaining the interconnection between training and employment up to the relationships between education and business should be a top concern and priority effort for both the government and politicians more in general, but unfortunately that’s still not the case.
On the background, there’s also the serious matter of demographics: Italy is getting old and its population drop is getting steeper. In 30 years’ time, 35% of Italian people will be aged 65 years and over – today they’re fewer than 25% – something that will greatly skew the public budget, due to the increase in social security, health and welfare costs. The job market will also radically change: nowadays, people of working age (15-64 years) and non- (0-15 years and 65 years and over) stand at a three-to-two ratio, which in 2050 will become a one-to-one ratio – a whole different world, a different social balance, a different public finance structure.
As we all know, demographic change is dictated by long-term trends, which means that policies aimed at fostering a birth rate increase need to be put in place now for them to have an impact in 20 years’ time.
In the meantime, in order to offset the Italian demographic drop and enhance, with new resources, the job market – and thus the production of collective wealth and well-being – the only available path is that of implementing wise and forward-looking immigration policies, that is, see “immigrants as wealth” (Linda Laura Sabbadini in la Repubblica, 3 March). In other words, we should combine welcoming humanitarian and civilised attitudes – typical, by the by, of Italian history and the traditionally inclusive Mediterranean culture – with a reasoned consideration of future interests, within a framework of opportunities and rules, training and acknowledgement of entrepreneurship. Essentially, Italy should become an attractive place for young people from all over the world to come and study, work and plan a better future in a country – the real ‘Bell’Italia’ – that has succeeded in overcoming a decline intrinsic to the current “pessimistic and dejected… frightened and sad” attitude (Berta Isla, Il Foglio, 5 March).
(photo: Getty Images)
Employment, immigration, training and education, development – let’s have look at and discuss the clear and accurate figures we have in our possession. In the last few days, ISTAT has announced a growth of up to 459,000 units in job numbers in January, as compared to last year, leading to a total of 23.3 million employed people: a record, at least since 2004, when monthly historical data series were introduced. The trend remains positive even when considered on a month-by-month basis: an increase of 35,000 employed people in January 2023, as compared to December 2022. “The job market continues to show positive signs, in line with a slowly recovering economic trend”, comments Il Sole24Ore (3 March). “The best job market in Italy of the past 30 years”, celebrates Il Foglio (3 March).
Indeed, a more in-depth review of the data reveals further positive elements: out of the 23.3 million employed people, 15.3 million are on a permanent contract, with a rise of 464,000 units as compared to January 2022 – an improvement with regards to job security, basically: while the number of fixed-term roles is currently under the psychological threshold of 3 million ( 2.994 million, to be precise).
The women’s employment rate is also positive: 9.87 million employed women, 264,000 more than in January 2022. Still, the employment gender gap remains wide – with an average increase of 60.8% overall, the men’s employment rate stands at 69.7% while the women’s employment rate is at an unsatisfactory 51.9%, and there are continued marked differences with other European countries (77% in Germany, 68% in France, 70% EU average). Yet, in spite of this, things are actually starting to shift, though more slowly then we’d like.
The economic recovery – particularly thriving in 2021 and 2022 (the GDP rose by almost 11% over this two-year period, at a pace unknown since the economic boom of the 1950s and 1960s) – is still flourishing at the beginning of 2023 and has quelled, for now, fears of a recession, as well as proving to have strong foundations both in terms of industrial manufacturing and export growth (a record figure of 625 billion). The impact of the Superbonus 110 construction scheme was trivial (the GDP grew by just 0.5% in 2021 and 0.9% in 2022, according to the analysis of the Italian public finances watchdog Osservatorio sui Conti Pubblici, undertaken by the Università Cattolica of Milan and led by Giampaolo Galli), thus invalidating the related propaganda spread by supporters of the Conte government and the Five Star Movement, who really wanted that bonus introduced despite all the issues its implementation would bring.
ISTAT employment data, however, also highlights an issue related to the younger generations that can’t be ignored: the employment rate, both for those under 25 and those aged 25 to 34 has dropped by 0.3%, while unemployment and inactivity have increased, and the unemployment rate has risen to 22.9% – one of the highest at international level, as having decreased to 5.7% in Germany, only Spain and Greece are now worse off than Italy.
Could things be better? Of course – if only enterprises could actually find the right people they’d like to employ then production, competitiveness, and social and economic growth would improve as a whole.
Indeed, the Unioncamere-ANPAL Excelsior surveys have always shown that almost half of vacant roles are not easy to fill, with peaks of 60-70% for technical and scientific ones. Economic news bear witness to this, too: “Companies are hunting for workers, but 41% is nowhere to be found” (Il Sole24Ore, 27 December 2022); “Manufacturers are looking for 43,000 workers in Milan, Monza and Brianza” (Corriere della Sera, 18 February); “Employment – companies are hunting for 4 million of young workers” (Il Sole24Ore, 11 February) – and so on, also in the fashion, mechatronics, chemistry and agri-food industries.
The Bank of Italy is also warning that in order to promptly and effectively implement the PNRR (the Italian recovery and resilience plan), 375,00 new workers are needed, from labourers to specialised technicians, as well as public administrators – it’s a real shame that they can’t be found (la Repubblica, 7 February).
Hence, we have a paradox: our productive drive is turning Italy into the second European manufacturing country, with increasing presence in high-value niches on the global markets, but we lack the necessary human capital to keep on growing, while hundreds of thousands of young people go abroad, looking for better work and life conditions (as we already mentioned several times in these blog posts).
In this respect, we can see that there are still various matters to be addressed concerning university education (with still too few students on STEM – science, technology, engineering and mathematics – degrees), proper social conditions for a radical increase of women workers, salaries and wages, quality work and satisfying prospects within a landscape filled with enterprises that are too small and often run in an old-fashioned way.
Obviously, the double issue pertaining the interconnection between training and employment up to the relationships between education and business should be a top concern and priority effort for both the government and politicians more in general, but unfortunately that’s still not the case.
On the background, there’s also the serious matter of demographics: Italy is getting old and its population drop is getting steeper. In 30 years’ time, 35% of Italian people will be aged 65 years and over – today they’re fewer than 25% – something that will greatly skew the public budget, due to the increase in social security, health and welfare costs. The job market will also radically change: nowadays, people of working age (15-64 years) and non- (0-15 years and 65 years and over) stand at a three-to-two ratio, which in 2050 will become a one-to-one ratio – a whole different world, a different social balance, a different public finance structure.
As we all know, demographic change is dictated by long-term trends, which means that policies aimed at fostering a birth rate increase need to be put in place now for them to have an impact in 20 years’ time.
In the meantime, in order to offset the Italian demographic drop and enhance, with new resources, the job market – and thus the production of collective wealth and well-being – the only available path is that of implementing wise and forward-looking immigration policies, that is, see “immigrants as wealth” (Linda Laura Sabbadini in la Repubblica, 3 March). In other words, we should combine welcoming humanitarian and civilised attitudes – typical, by the by, of Italian history and the traditionally inclusive Mediterranean culture – with a reasoned consideration of future interests, within a framework of opportunities and rules, training and acknowledgement of entrepreneurship. Essentially, Italy should become an attractive place for young people from all over the world to come and study, work and plan a better future in a country – the real ‘Bell’Italia’ – that has succeeded in overcoming a decline intrinsic to the current “pessimistic and dejected… frightened and sad” attitude (Berta Isla, Il Foglio, 5 March).
(photo: Getty Images)