September, off we go again. Providing insights into the data that reveal a demographic crisis and the shortage of skilled workers
September arrives, marking the change of season. The holidays are over (and this year they were shorter and cheaper for thousands of families). The light is no longer hazy as it was in summer; instead, it’s sharp and clear, and the shadows herald the arrival of autumn. And the ‘wonder of the night wide open to the sea’ (a line from one of the singer Mina’s most beautiful songs) gives way to the resumption of daily work. We must get used to an uncertain and difficult reality once again.
Tensions relating to wars, geopolitics and trade conflicts have not eased; far from it. All the issues that we had temporarily overlooked are now back before political decision-makers and the public.
Let’s consider some data that provides food for thought (remembering that good governance, the market economy and democracy are impossible without reliable statistics). The first figure relates to demographics. This year, just 340,000 children are expected to be born, which is 30,000 fewer than in 2024. There has been an increasingly sharp decline in recent years: in 2024, there were 10,000 fewer births than in 2023. The second figure relates to the fact that, according to Il Sole24Ore (21 August), companies are looking for 2.3 million graduates and those with technical qualifications, but have only managed to recruit some of them, which therefore limits their growth.
These figures were published by newspapers in the summer (good information never goes on holiday, and are needed for the market and democracy). But perhaps they were read distractedly between dips in the sea, walks in the mountains, and gin and tonics at sunset.
Why are we starting with this data? To highlight the fundamental issues that need to be addressed in order to develop sustainable projects and establish long-term policies in Europe that prevent marginalisation and subsequent decline. ‘The illusion of a strong Europe has already evaporated’, Mario Draghi recalled at the Rimini Meeting on 22 August. This is an area of the world where essential values and lifestyles coexist and must be defended and revived: free economy, welfare, and indeed representative democracy, freedom and solidarity. The critical sense of history and innovation related to free and autonomous scientific research, memory and the future, with the goal of giving the EU strong political subjectivity by addressing major issues such as security, energy, innovation, industrial policies and training (Sergio Fabbrini in Il Sole24Ore, 31 August).
Let’s look at the data, then. Starting with the so-called ‘demographic winter’, we can see an increasing decrease in the number of births, as well as a fertility rate of 1.18 children per woman, which is one of the lowest in Europe (the European average is 1.38 and the world average is 2.20). The OECD estimates that Italy will lose 12 million active workers by 2060 — a decrease of 34% compared to today and four times greater than the average for the 38 OECD countries. If productivity does not rise, GDP per capita will fall by an average of 0.5% per year (Il Sole 24 Ore, 25 and 29 July). In short, we are becoming an increasingly ageing and impoverished country, characterised by hardship and loneliness. According to ISTAT, 41% of families will consist of one person in 2050.
‘Empty classrooms’ are a further disturbing factor, according to INAIL statistics validated by the Ministry of Economy (Il Sole24Ore, 13 August), Italy will lose 1 million pupils in ten years.
The population is shrinking, as are the workforce and the ‘knowledge economy’, which is being deprived of its most fundamental asset: people. Firms are struggling and medium-term economic growth is becoming increasingly sluggish.
The labour market is also affected: two sets of data illustrate this well: ‘Stem’ (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) degree alert: the Excelsior Report of Unioncamere estimates that between 9,000 and 18,000 workers could be lacking every year, leaving the current need for 2.3 million graduates and those with technical qualifications partly unmet, as noted above, with negative consequences for key sectors of our industrial competitiveness. ‘Electronics: shortage of employees holds back seven out of ten companies’, according to Anie, the Confindustria sector association (Il Sole24Ore, 26 August). And again: ‘Small companies short of talent: three out of four struggle to find skills and suitable candidates.’ ‘Four out of ten interviews for skilled workers are no-shows’, according to Corriere della Sera on 31 August, citing Unioncamere/Ministry of Labour data reworked by the CGIA of Mestre.
Carlo Cottarelli (Corriere della Sera, 12 August) describes the real economy as ‘anaemic’, even though employment figures are generally positive (24,326,000 people were employed in June, which is an increase on previous months), and Cottarelli adds that ‘public accounts in good order give credibility to Italy’.
Alongside the figures on demographic winter and the mismatch between supply and demand for work, there are other figures to consider. Between 2011 and 2024, more than 619,000 young people aged 18–34 left Italy, resulting in a net loss of 433,000 people. And this trend is growing: in 2024 alone, the estimated net loss exceeded 55,000 people, almost five times the level in 2011. ‘Italy continues to lose young people, and it is not just a question of numbers. It is a loss of human capital, energy and future prosperity,’ argues Luca Paolazzi (Huffington Post, 16 July).
Surprisingly, he insists that the most affected regions are the most developed ones: Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Emilia-Romagna and Trentino-Alto Adige, where more than 50% of young emigrants are educated to degree level. He refers to this as ‘selective emigration, whereby the most educated are attracted to other countries where their qualifications are more highly valued and career prospects are clearer.’
This is a very heavy loss of human and social capital, which could drastically reduce Italy’s prospects for economic growth and sustainable development in the medium term, condemning it to marginalisation — not only economic, but also political.
‘There is an inseparable link between births and growth’, writes authoritative demographer Alessandro Rosina (Il Sole24Ore, 25 July), recalling that ‘GDP depends on three elements: the number of people of working age, the employment rate and productivity. And all these factors are interdependently linked with the mechanisms of demographic dynamics.’
The political point is this: make choices that prioritise quality of life and work, training, and the sustainability of economic and social processes. Make Italy attractive to young people from the rest of the world who want to build a better future here. Rosina explains that the goal is ‘to make Italy a country where you can work well, grow well from childhood, and live well at every stage of life; a place where people can choose to stay and integrate different experiences and backgrounds positively. If we set our sights on this, we will also end up with more economic well-being and a greater desire for children.’
In our recovery of activity in politics and business, it is crucial to move in this direction and establish practical and forward-thinking measures in the upcoming Finance Law. This will help create a more competitive, attractive and supportive Italy.
(Photo Getty Images)






September arrives, marking the change of season. The holidays are over (and this year they were shorter and cheaper for thousands of families). The light is no longer hazy as it was in summer; instead, it’s sharp and clear, and the shadows herald the arrival of autumn. And the ‘wonder of the night wide open to the sea’ (a line from one of the singer Mina’s most beautiful songs) gives way to the resumption of daily work. We must get used to an uncertain and difficult reality once again.
Tensions relating to wars, geopolitics and trade conflicts have not eased; far from it. All the issues that we had temporarily overlooked are now back before political decision-makers and the public.
Let’s consider some data that provides food for thought (remembering that good governance, the market economy and democracy are impossible without reliable statistics). The first figure relates to demographics. This year, just 340,000 children are expected to be born, which is 30,000 fewer than in 2024. There has been an increasingly sharp decline in recent years: in 2024, there were 10,000 fewer births than in 2023. The second figure relates to the fact that, according to Il Sole24Ore (21 August), companies are looking for 2.3 million graduates and those with technical qualifications, but have only managed to recruit some of them, which therefore limits their growth.
These figures were published by newspapers in the summer (good information never goes on holiday, and are needed for the market and democracy). But perhaps they were read distractedly between dips in the sea, walks in the mountains, and gin and tonics at sunset.
Why are we starting with this data? To highlight the fundamental issues that need to be addressed in order to develop sustainable projects and establish long-term policies in Europe that prevent marginalisation and subsequent decline. ‘The illusion of a strong Europe has already evaporated’, Mario Draghi recalled at the Rimini Meeting on 22 August. This is an area of the world where essential values and lifestyles coexist and must be defended and revived: free economy, welfare, and indeed representative democracy, freedom and solidarity. The critical sense of history and innovation related to free and autonomous scientific research, memory and the future, with the goal of giving the EU strong political subjectivity by addressing major issues such as security, energy, innovation, industrial policies and training (Sergio Fabbrini in Il Sole24Ore, 31 August).
Let’s look at the data, then. Starting with the so-called ‘demographic winter’, we can see an increasing decrease in the number of births, as well as a fertility rate of 1.18 children per woman, which is one of the lowest in Europe (the European average is 1.38 and the world average is 2.20). The OECD estimates that Italy will lose 12 million active workers by 2060 — a decrease of 34% compared to today and four times greater than the average for the 38 OECD countries. If productivity does not rise, GDP per capita will fall by an average of 0.5% per year (Il Sole 24 Ore, 25 and 29 July). In short, we are becoming an increasingly ageing and impoverished country, characterised by hardship and loneliness. According to ISTAT, 41% of families will consist of one person in 2050.
‘Empty classrooms’ are a further disturbing factor, according to INAIL statistics validated by the Ministry of Economy (Il Sole24Ore, 13 August), Italy will lose 1 million pupils in ten years.
The population is shrinking, as are the workforce and the ‘knowledge economy’, which is being deprived of its most fundamental asset: people. Firms are struggling and medium-term economic growth is becoming increasingly sluggish.
The labour market is also affected: two sets of data illustrate this well: ‘Stem’ (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) degree alert: the Excelsior Report of Unioncamere estimates that between 9,000 and 18,000 workers could be lacking every year, leaving the current need for 2.3 million graduates and those with technical qualifications partly unmet, as noted above, with negative consequences for key sectors of our industrial competitiveness. ‘Electronics: shortage of employees holds back seven out of ten companies’, according to Anie, the Confindustria sector association (Il Sole24Ore, 26 August). And again: ‘Small companies short of talent: three out of four struggle to find skills and suitable candidates.’ ‘Four out of ten interviews for skilled workers are no-shows’, according to Corriere della Sera on 31 August, citing Unioncamere/Ministry of Labour data reworked by the CGIA of Mestre.
Carlo Cottarelli (Corriere della Sera, 12 August) describes the real economy as ‘anaemic’, even though employment figures are generally positive (24,326,000 people were employed in June, which is an increase on previous months), and Cottarelli adds that ‘public accounts in good order give credibility to Italy’.
Alongside the figures on demographic winter and the mismatch between supply and demand for work, there are other figures to consider. Between 2011 and 2024, more than 619,000 young people aged 18–34 left Italy, resulting in a net loss of 433,000 people. And this trend is growing: in 2024 alone, the estimated net loss exceeded 55,000 people, almost five times the level in 2011. ‘Italy continues to lose young people, and it is not just a question of numbers. It is a loss of human capital, energy and future prosperity,’ argues Luca Paolazzi (Huffington Post, 16 July).
Surprisingly, he insists that the most affected regions are the most developed ones: Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Emilia-Romagna and Trentino-Alto Adige, where more than 50% of young emigrants are educated to degree level. He refers to this as ‘selective emigration, whereby the most educated are attracted to other countries where their qualifications are more highly valued and career prospects are clearer.’
This is a very heavy loss of human and social capital, which could drastically reduce Italy’s prospects for economic growth and sustainable development in the medium term, condemning it to marginalisation — not only economic, but also political.
‘There is an inseparable link between births and growth’, writes authoritative demographer Alessandro Rosina (Il Sole24Ore, 25 July), recalling that ‘GDP depends on three elements: the number of people of working age, the employment rate and productivity. And all these factors are interdependently linked with the mechanisms of demographic dynamics.’
The political point is this: make choices that prioritise quality of life and work, training, and the sustainability of economic and social processes. Make Italy attractive to young people from the rest of the world who want to build a better future here. Rosina explains that the goal is ‘to make Italy a country where you can work well, grow well from childhood, and live well at every stage of life; a place where people can choose to stay and integrate different experiences and backgrounds positively. If we set our sights on this, we will also end up with more economic well-being and a greater desire for children.’
In our recovery of activity in politics and business, it is crucial to move in this direction and establish practical and forward-thinking measures in the upcoming Finance Law. This will help create a more competitive, attractive and supportive Italy.
(Photo Getty Images)










